March 29th, 2010

As the Duke Blue Devils head to their first Final Four since 2004, we honor the occasion by taking a look at the pro potential of the players that America loves to hate. 

 

Jon Scheyer

We think that Scheyer’s future in the NBA is as a point guard.  Scheyer is always going to be less athletic than NBA-caliber shooting guards, but he can better mask his deficiencies against point guards because of the size advantage he will have.

Scheyer has a ton of strengths that will make NBA teams overlook his lack of athleticism.  He shoots with deep range and is money from the foul line.  Scheyer has great change of pace skills while dribbling and an effective, if methodical, way of bringing the ball up the floor.  With the exception of Ohio State’s Evan Turner, nobody in the country was asked to carry more responsibility for their team than Scheyer.  Look for him to be a second-round pick and to stick in the NBA as a back-up point guard. 

 

Nolan Smith

As much as Scheyer benefitted by moving to the point, Smith might have been helped out even more by his switch to shooting guard.  The former McDonald’s All-American discovered his shooting touch and turned into one of the more reliable scorers in the ACC.  Smith does it by employing a nice floater in the lane and capitalizing on open looks around the three-point line. 

The problems with Smith are two-fold.  First, he lacks NBA athleticism.  It is most obvious when he tries to finish in transition and ends up getting blocked or simply misses.  The second problem is that he does absolutely nothing except score, which is evident from his averaging under three assists and under three rebounds per game.  The NBA has no room for six-foot shooting guards who won’t be able to effectively get to the rim. 

The only chance for Smith to make an NBA roster is to stay at Duke for another season and prove he can play point guard.  However, he is having a strong tournament and Duke has two highly touted freshmen point guards coming in, so our money is on his making the jump.  Look for him to go in the very late second round or undrafted. 

 

Kyle Singler

Singler reminds us of Orlando’s Ryan Anderson, who was a first-round pick two years ago.  He tends to run very hot-and-cold (0-10 from the field, 5 points against Baylor in the Elite Eight), but will not be the focus of the defense in the pros like he is on Duke. 

Singler could be a very effective stretch power forward in the right system.  He has flawless shooting form and a quick release.  He shows the willingness to bang down low, but gets in trouble when he tries to power over more athletic players in the paint. 

Our guess is that some NBA teams will love him and other will hate him.  Enough teams should have interest to keep his stock in the late first round area. 

 

Brian Zoubek

Going into this season, Zoubek was nowhere near the NBA radar.  However, he played great over the last half of the season and established himself as a second round pick or priority undrafted free agent.

Zoubek has a great knack for offensive rebounding and decent shooting touch.  Unfortunately, his foul propensity and lack of refined skills will keep him out of the first round and NBA rotations. 

 

Miles Plumlee

Plumlee has by far the most upside of anyone on Duke’s roster.  An NBA-ready body as a freshman and great size, strength, and athleticism have scouts drooling. 

Having said that, he is far from a complete package.  Plumlee looks tentative at times with the ball and hasn’t been asked to flash any sort of a perimeter game.  We see glimpses of what he can do every game, but as of now he should return to school and eventually become the lottery pick that his potential allows. 

 

 

 

February 25th, 2010

We attended the Vanderbilt-Kentucky basketball game last Saturday at Memorial Stadium and came away with a few NBA Draft thoughts when we weren’t wondering why we didn’t apply to Vandy…

Kentucky

John Wall

The best point guard in college basketball did not play well.  Instead of utilizing his unbelievable lateral quickness he continuously settled for contested jumpers.  At the end of the game, Wall flashed the talent that has everyone calling him the number 1 pick.  His quick and compact crossover to the hoop led to two free throws, and then he made the biggest defensive play of the game by blocking a Vandy three-point attempt.  Wall did a fantastic job of staying down on the first up-fake and then anticipating the release of the ball. 

Overall, not his best game, but he did nothing to hurt his stock too severely. 

DeMarcus Cousins

Cousins does a lot of things well, and plenty of things not so well. 

First we’ll go over the good.  He could play only 26 minutes because of foul trouble, but still managed to put up 19 points.  His points came on a variety of spin moves and drop-steps near the hoop that resulted in free-throws or easy buckets.  Cousins is strong with broad shoulders that suggest an ability to put on lots of muscle. 

Now for the not-so-good.  Cousins does not appear to be in good shape.  Some of his fouls were lazy and avoidable.  Five turnovers is also an unacceptable number for a big man.  Cousins displayed his immaturity when he gestured to fans who were jeering at him—which drew the ire of coach John Calipari.  He’s played his way into the top-10, but let’s hope he remains motivated wherever he ends up. 

Eric Bledsoe

Bledsoe’s most impressive moment came during warm-ups when he missed a spectacular dunk attempt that had the raucous crowd stunned.  Unfortunately for Bledsoe, his day after warm-ups went downhill faster than Lindsey Vonn (we watch the Winter Olympics here at Draft Empire!  Ok maybe we don’t, but we know who Lindsey Vonn is). 

Turnovers and missed free-throws, combined with an attitude that made even Cousins seem like he cared, plagued Bledsoe throughout the game.  Right now it is unclear whether he can pass or shoot consistently enough at the next level.  He has the hops and body of an NBA player, but not much else.  Our advice would be for Bledsoe to stay for another year and prove he can play point at the next level. 

Patrick Patterson

Physically, Patterson is big enough to succeed as a four in the pros if he can consistently hit an outside jumper.  The Vanderbilt game showed mixed results.  Patterson hit a clutch three-pointer right in front of the Vandy fans, but also missed a couple of open shots and didn’t display fluid form.  He also bricked a huge alley-oop that would have helped ice the game for Kentucky. 

Patterson is somewhat a victim of the talent on his team and does not receive nearly enough touches. Overall he seems to be a solid mid-first round prospect. 

 

Vanderbilt

A. J. Ogilvy

Ogilvy, who has been on scout’s radars since his freshmen season, provided an underwhelming performance.  Besides missing an open runner that would have tied the game at the buzzer, Ogilvy got blocked a number of times around the hoop.  We don’t think he can be a starter at the NBA level, but if he improves his jump shooting a little bit he has a chance to make a roster. 

Jeffrey Taylor

Taylor is an interesting prospect.  He has prototypical size for a wing and looks strong.  Taylor opened up the game with a vicious follow-up dunk on a fast break and finished with 17 points. 

Judging by the great form he displayed and some solid free-throw shooting, we were shocked to see that Taylor shoots under 10% from beyond the arc.  That number is terrible, and he won’t be taken seriously as a prospect until he can get the percentage to about 30%.  Our bet is that will be sooner rather than later, and we’ll keep an eye on Taylor as a sleeper prospect for next year. 

 

 

 

 

February 4th, 2010

Lost among all the confusion that comes with an uncapped year in the NFL in 2010 is the fact that there are no salary cap ramifications for teams that cut players.  That’s right, zero penalties for teams that want to swallow their pride and admit a mistake or two.  Here is a list of the eight teams with the first eight picks that could be looking to clean the slate. 

Keep in mind that these potential cuts are purely speculative. 

 

1.  St. Louis Rams

 

Potential Cuts: Marc Bulger, Adam Carriker

Draft impact:  Because of the astonishing lack of talent on the Rams, they are not saddled with a ton of unsavory contracts.  People around the NFL don’t necessarily blame Bulger for the team’s inadequacies, but they simply cannot justify paying him $8.5 million next year.  We at Draft Empire would be shocked if the Rams do not go for a quarterback early in the draft or target one early in free agency, while cutting ties with Bulger. 

Carriker is a little trickier.  Highly regarded coming out of Nebraska, Carriker immediately moved inside for the Ram’s defense from his more natural end spot and did not perform particularly well.  Then he went and landed on injured reserve the next season.  One thing working against Carriker is that new coach Steve Spagnola did not draft him, and would not feel obligated to bring him back if he felt he was not worth the money.  If indeed Carriker is gone (and we concede this is a big if), look for the Rams to draft Ndamukong Suh with their top pick, regardless of their quarterback situation. 

 

2.  Detroit Lions

 

Potential Cuts:  Jeff Backus, Ernie Sims

Draft Impact:  In order to be successful, a young quarterback fares much better when they can stay upright, a service that Backus is not particularly good at providing.  After signing a 6-year, $38 million contract in 2006, he may be gone after this season.  Look for Detroit to target an offensive tackle in one of the first three rounds.

We don’t think Sims will be cut, but it’s not out of the question.  Sims lost playing time to DeAndre Levy in his third season after recording over 100 tackles in his first two campaigns.  The Lions are so bad at defense that they should find a reason to keep Sims on the roster.  The Lions need depth at almost every defensive position. 

 

3.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

Potential Cuts:  Michael Clayton

Draft Impact:  Curiously, the Buccaneers bid against themselves and gave Clayton $24 million for five years after three straight disappointing seasons.  How did Clayton reward them?  By complaining about not getting the ball and not producing when he did.  With Clayton gone and Antonio Bryant a free-agent after being franchised, Tampa Bay would do well to draft a top playmaker for franchise quarterback Josh Freeman.  

 

4.  Washington Redskins

 

Potential Cuts:  Clinton Portis, Antwan Randel El

Draft Impact:  It is probably a long shot for Portis to be cut, but he does carry a cap figure of over $7 million for 2010.  That is a high number for a player that has caused trouble off the field and not been productive on it for the last one and a half seasons.  In a draft deep at running back, Washington might be in play for a mid-round talent such as Stanford’s Toby Gerhart or Fresno State’s underrated Ryan Mathews.  Both would be fits in new coach Mike Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme.

Malcolm Kelly can’t get open, Devin Thomas can’t catch, and Randel El provides no value as a receiver or a returner at this stage in his career.  Look for Washington to target a receiver opposite Santana Moss in the middle rounds, but on a team with so many holes (particularly in the O-line) other areas will be looked at first. 

 

5.  Kansas City Chiefs

 

Potential Cuts:  Glenn Dorsey

Draft Impact:  Dorsey is completely lost in the 3-4.  Too short to play end and too small to play nose, he really is without a position.  He is also another player who will suffer from having a new regime in the organization that will not feel loyal to him.  While with the Patriots, GM Scott Pioli sought to build the team from inside out, and took DE Tyson Jackson at number three last year. Kansas City will be drafting for depth along the defensive line early and often in the draft. 

 

6.  Seattle Seahawks

 

Potential Cuts:  Deon Branch, Walter Jones

Draft Impact:  Branch has been a major free-agent bust since signing with the Seahawks in 2006 and is due over $5 million in 2010.  Possession receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh works best with a speedy receiver opposite him, so look for the Seahawks to target someone with speed early after Branch is either released or traded. 

Future Hall-of-Famer Walter Jones is clearly on his last legs.  Jones and his $7.3 million cap hit in 2010 will most likely be leaving Seattle, meaning that the Seahawks could take a tackle like Notre Dame’s Sam Young in the mid-rounds. 

 

7.  Cleveland Browns

 

Potential Cuts:  Either Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn, Eric Steinbach

Draft Impact:  There is no way the Browns go into next season with both quarterbacks on their roster again.  Our guess is that Quinn will be staying, meaning Anderson and his $7.45 million salary will be gone.  That is of course if Quinn, who was re-named the starter late in 2009, can earn the trust of new football czar Mike Holmgreen.  In that case, The Browns may go for some excitement and draft Dez  Bryant to bolster one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL.  Florida end Carlos Dunlap also is a nice fit for their 3-4 defense.

Besides Joe Thomas, who is a top-3 LT in football, the Brown’s line is a mess.  A few years ago when everyone was handing out $50 million contracts to guards (see Dockery, Derrick), Steinbach was a main beneficiary.  He is owed $24 million the next three years of his deal, and has underperformed thus far.  He is as good as gone, and the Browns will certainly look for depth along the O-line throughout the draft. 

 

8.  Oakland Raiders

 

Potential Cuts:  JaMarcus Russell, Javon Walker, Michael Huff

Draft Impact:  Well, the Raiders will have another high pick in this year’s upcoming draft and the biggest question is whether or not big boss Al Davis has given up on Russell.  A historically bad season combined with reports of terrible practice habits did not bode well for the former first overall pick, but recent word is Davis isn’t quite ready to give up on him.  We still think the Raiders will draft a quarterback early, but perhaps Russell will be around to make the rookie look good. 

Walker didn’t play behind incredibly inefficient rookies Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy, and that was WITH his being guaranteed $4.6 million through next year.  We bet Davis cuts his losses and cuts Walker anyway to save money on the duration of his contract.  This should not have an impact on the Raiders draft. 

Huff hasn’t flashed any of the playmaking ability he displayed while at Texas.  Just four interceptions in four years will get a high-paid free safety shipped out faster than Lane Kiffin in a new coaching gig.  Oakland will look for help in the secondary in either the 2^nd or 3^rd rounds come draft night.